Irma

We watched in horror at the devastation Harvey brought to Texas. While the winds were brutal the flooding was the real killer. At first reports, Irma wasn't going to develop into a major storm and its track probably wouldn't impact the United States. It would NOT be another Harvey. The forecast soon began to change. It would grow to be a major storm and would probably hit Florida, and it would become one of the strongest storms in the state's history.

After the storm formed, it intensified quickly. In the span of 24 hours, Irma became a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. The storm then idled as it moved west across the Atlantic — before warmer waters gave it another growth spurt.

On Monday, Sept. 4, Irma's sustained winds were 120 mph. On Sept. 5, they were 185 mph, with gusts of 213 mph. When it finally hit land, it devastated Barbuda, St. Martin and other Leeward islands with direct hits, and brought massive flooding to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Reference here

We had to make a decision. What options to consider:

1. Bug out. We have family in Atlanta so we could "batten down the hatches", leave Florida until the crisis passed, staying safe away from the storm.
2. Stay in place. It would greatly depend on where this beast was going. If it stayed on the Atlantic side of the Florida peninsula the likely damage to us would be minimal. 
3. Sally is in a hangar. I've seen too many pictures of beautiful airplanes trapped in collapsed hangars. The FBO assured me that my hangar could withstand a Category 3 storm. This monster would become a Category 5! I could fly her far away from the storm, up to Atlanta and wait it out there. No hangar available so she would need to be securely tied down on the line.

We watched the news. We gathered recommendations.

Dave, if you have a chance to get away from the storm, take it. I stayed through a cat 3 because of staying for the hospital. But never again. I would stay for a cat 1, but even that is not very smart. We ended up with 7 feet of water in the house. In the process of cleaning up now. ~ My friend Duane from Texas

Take your plane and get the hell out of Dodge. Head up to Auburn, Ala at least. ~ My friend JW 

I would strongly advise, get out of Fl. Not the storm I worry about, the aftermath and lack of infrastructure. ~ My friend Todd

The news was uncertain so we made our plans on the best available forecast. On Wednesday Sept 6th  I wrote this note:

It is still too early to tell what this monster is going to do. Earlier this morning we had some "positive" news that the forecast projected (spaghetti models) an eastward track to go up the Atlantic side of the state. However, this is still only a guess. We continue to monitor the weather stations and will have a better sense of reality Thursday evening.

Our plans, given current best guess:

1.) Stay in Tampa. Fuel the cars, buy all groceries and plan for power outages. We will remove all debris from outside and move Kathy's car into the garage. The truck will weather the storm. Sally is in a hangar. I do not plan to relocate her. Should the hangar fail the insurance company will buy a 2010 PiperSport. 

2.) After Thursday, if the forecast dictates that we must leave, we will evacuate to Atlanta. In that case, I expect massive prolonged power outages and chaos in Florida. We will monitor conditions until it is safe for us to return.

But the forecast was still uncertain on Friday morning.

"For 10 days, computer-forecast models had struggled with how the high was going to push Irma around and when it was going to stop, said Peter Sousounis, director of meteorology at AIR Worldwide. “I have never watched a forecast more carefully than Irma. I was very surprised not by how one model was going back and forth -- but by how all the models were going back and forth.”  Reference here

Evidently, the science of forecasting isn't as robust as we thought it was. The models continued to move the forecast west. Mandatory evacuations for south Florida put millions of cars on the Interstates going north. Traffic was crawling at 5 mph in many places. Gas became a problem.

We could still fly Sally to get away, but where? The forecast didn't help. I could take her out of a safe hangar only to tie her down in the direct path of the storm. This was a very difficult Go/No Go decision.

No Go. We "hunkered down" and waited out Hurricane Irma. She arrived on Sunday, September 10th.

Close miss. We live about 5 miles west of the track.

Reference: "Again, it could have been a lot worse than it was. I think Harvey, the impact Harvey had on Texas was probably worse than Irma. But you know, these disasters, there's nothing you can do about them." Joe Bastardi. See video here